Spring Awakening - Axis AAR (full historical campaign)

[ComradeP]

Other Panzer Campaigns AAR's can be found at The Blitz: https://www.theblitz.club/message_board ... php?fid=70

After taking a break from PzC for 9 months or so, the release of Spring Awakening was a good moment to start playing PzC again.

Instead of continuing with the Minsk '44 campaign we had started in late 2022, we decided to start a campaign game of Spring Awakening.

We're playing the full 98 turn campaign with the "historical" PDT settings. The main difference between those settings and the "dynamic" settings is that movement during mud turns is much slower with the "historical" settings due to higher weather-related MP (movement point) cost multipliers.

This make progress slow, like it should be considering the weather.

No units can move and assault when not in T(ravel)-mode.



The weather, from left to right: the date, percentage chance for Normal conditions, percentage chance for Soft conditions, percentage chance for Mud conditions, percentage chance for Snow conditions, percentage chance for Frozen conditions, min and max visibility in hexes, percentage chance that a storm occurs.

Days 1-3 are very likely to be muddy.

As maximum visibility is 1, no air missions can be launched on the first two days.

Days 4-8 alternate between Soft and Mud.

Days 9-10 are likely to be Normal or Soft.

2 days of Normal weather would play out very differently from 2 days of Soft weather due to the weather-related MP cost modifiers.

[ComradeP]

Overview screenshots from north to south.



The bulk of both the Axis and Soviet forces are concentrated in the north.

Only the offensive is the north is technically "Frühlingserwachen" or Spring Awakening.

The offensive is conducted by units belonging to Heeresgruppe Süd's Armeegruppe Balck and 6. Panzerarmee commanded by Dietrich.

The offensive is opposed by elements of Tolbukhin's 3rd Ukrainian Front and elements of 2nd Ukrainian Front that arrive as reinforcements.

The initial Soviet frontline is held by 26th Army, with 27th Army in reserve.



The offensive in the western/central part of the map was called "Eisbrecher" or Icebreaker.

This offensive is conducted by 2. Panzerarmee commanded by De Angelis.

The offensive is opposed by units from 3rd Ukrainian Front's 57th Army.



The offensive in the southern part of the map was called "Waldteufel" or "Forest Devil"

This offensive is conducted by units from Heeresgruppe E attacking across the Drava river at the border between Hungary and Yugoslavia.

The offensive is opposed by the 1st Bulgarian Army and 3rd Yugoslavian Army.

[ComradeP]

The initial Axis dispositions in more detail.

The majority of the German formations are (seriously) understrength.



The 6. (March 10th) and 23. (March 9th) Panzer Divisions arrive through a strategy choice around Székesfehérvár.

Going from Lake Velence to Lake Balaton.

AG Balck's III. Panzerkorps consists of the B quality 3. Panzer Division which starts Fixed, the B quality 1. Panzer Division and the C quality 356. Infanterie Division.

How these formations made any kind of progress is unclear to me. 356. ID consists of just 4 infantry battalions and most of 1. Pz's battalions are company-sized at 200 men or less.

Initial opposition consists of the C quality 1st Guards Fortified Region and the C quality 155th Rifle Division.

Next to III. Panzerkorps is the II. SS Panzerkorps consisting of the 2. "Das Reich" and 9. "Hohenstaufen" SS Panzer Divisions and the 44. "Hoch- und Deutschmeister" Reichsgrenadier Division. They're all B quality formations and start Fixed.

Initial opposition consists of part of the C quality 155th Rifle Division and the C quality 36th Guards Rifle Division.

Next to II. SS Panzerkorps is I. SS Panzerkorps consisting of the B quality 1. "Leibstandarte SS Adolf Hitler" and B quality 12. "Hitlerjugend" SS Panzer Divisions.

Initial opposition consists of the C quality 233rd Rifle Division and the C quality 68th Guards Rifle Division.

Next to I. SS Panzerkorps is the 1. Kavalleriekorps consisting of the B quality 3. and 4. Kavallerie Divisions and the C/D quality 25th Hadosztály (Hungarian Infantry Division).

Initial opposition consists of the D quality 74th and C quality 93rd Rifle Divisions.

[ComradeP]

South of Lake Balaton, the XXII Gebirgskorps consists of the B quality 1. Volks Gebirgs Division and the D quality 118. Jaeger Division.

Initial opposition consists of the C quality 61st and 73rd Guards Rifle Divisions.

The LXVIII Armeekorps consists of the C quality 16. SS Panzergrenadier Division "Reichsführer SS" and the C quality 71. Infantry Division.

Initial opposition consists of parts of the C quality 73rd Guards Rifle Division and the C quality 299th Rifle Division.

[ComradeP]

At the Drava crossings, the offensive is carried out by LXXXXI Korps z.b.V. consisting of the C quality 104. Jaeger Division, the C quality 297. Infanterie Division and the D quality 11. Luftwaffen Feld Division. Elements of the D quality 1. Kosaken Kavallerie Division arrive as reinforcements.

Initial opposition consists of the Bulgarian D quality 3rd and 11th Infantry Divisions and the Yugoslav D quality 16th Assault Division.

[ComradeP]

The initial Axis strength dialog.

As you can see, most divisions are seriously understrength, with the initial strength in men being roughly the size of an early war regiment.

Soviet Rifle battalions are mostly company-sized as well, with roughly 200 men each.

I'd argue that the main issue both sides face isn't the weather, but how to deal with attrition. Small units can't withstand a sustained beating.

As both the replacement and recovery mechanics depend on either a percentage of unit size or a percentage of total losses, loss recovery is slow. 1% of 200 or 1% of 600 is the same as a relative value, but very different as an absolute value.

Late war losses from artillery fire are also considerably higher than in early/mid war scenarios due to the sheer number of artillery units and the lethality of Katyusha and Nebelwerfer projectiles in particular.

[All_American]

Very interested in this AAR. I agree with your assessment of III. PzK. I had a tough going against the AI, 1. Pz.Div. is far too weak.

Perhaps the strategy south of Lake Velencze is one of using armor more liberally and saving precious Panzergrenadiers until Soviet artillery is attrited enough.

[ComradeP]

One problem with the attrition from artillery fire in the northern part of the map is that it doesn't really depend on where your units move to. As long as they're in range of the artillery, attrition occurs. Attrition at a different location is still attrition. Combined with the inability to rotate units due to the overall lack of battalions with 350 men or more, that's something you need to take into account from turn 1 on.

A single Katyusha unit can inflict ~40 losses each turn, on average, on targets in the open.

By the end of day 3 or 4, an advance might be bled dry completely.

If you capture an objective and place a unit there in a Trench hex, it won't survive a sustained beating for more than 2-3 turns.

For the Soviets, the attrition comes from direct fire and assaults and later on from the handful of strong 30cm Nebelwerfer units.

Even if losses per turn would be less high, most Soviet units can't be broken down. That means they can't recover Fatigue during night turns.

Based on how the game is going thus far, I'd say attrition favours the Soviets in the north, the Axis south of Lake Balaton and no particular side at the Drava bridgeheads as long as 11. LW Feld Division moves to the other bridgehead.

Long term artillery attrition through counter-battery fire can only occur for artillery units that are both in range of enemy artillery (on days where visibility prevents air missions) and within 10 hexes of an enemy unit. That makes Katyusha/Nebelwerfer units the likely mid-late game targets.

It took a few turns before my opponent switched to counter-battery fire as a strategy, possibly as his own losses from counter-battery fire were increasing. My losses per artillery unit have been low except for a Nebelwerfer unit in a Clear hex without a trench. The low Defence values of Nebelwerfer units is an issue in a scenario where the Soviets have range 20 artillery units.

With the low replacement/recovery rate, it's less likely that units will replace/recover losses during the turn when they're Unavailable. As artillery units automatically "rest" every couple of turns due to being Unavailable, incidental losses from counter-battery fire are not much of an issue in most PzC games. With the number of artillery units in the north for both sides, any artillery unit that can be targeted is likely to be hit hard.

In most Eastern Front games, the Germans are (far) better at counter-battery fire because they have long-ranged A/B quality Corps/Army artillery and most Soviet guns are powerful but generally short-ranged and D quality. In 1945, the Soviets have better artillery, (far) more artillery in general and it's mostly C quality.

The Bulgarian and Yugoslavian artillery is D quality and performs like the early-mid war Soviet artillery.

[ComradeP]

Though I'm sceptical about my chances to even get a Draw, not to mention a victory, I'm enjoying the scenario thus far.

The objectives are mostly concentrated in the area where the historical "Frühlingserwachen"/Spring Awakening took place, with a few objectives in the areas where the other offensives took place. There are also some high value objectives along the Danube.

A point of criticism regarding objective placement would be that it's too focused on Spring Awakening and not on operational threats to 3rd Ukrainian Front.

If you capture all objectives west of a line from Donji Miholjac to Lake Balaton, you gain 650 points. A single objective along the Sio Canal is worth more, even though an advance along that line could blow a 130 kilometre wide hole in 3rd Ukrainian Front's flank. A few more high value objectives in the central part of the map in particular would be appreciated. If "Eisbrecher" would've been a decisive success, that would also have forced 3rd Ukrainian Front to commit additional forces to the area.

Given the success of the Vienna Offensive, it's unlikely the Axis could've held on to any gains, but neither side knew how successful the Vienna Offensive would be in the days after these operations were halted.

[ComradeP]

I'll post Dawn (04:00) screenshots for days with Mud conditions and perhaps a noon screenshot if the fighting becomes more mobile. Progress is slow enough that a single screenshot for each day with Mud conditions should be enough to follow the action.

Turn 10, 04:00 March 7th 1945, Mud Conditions.



In the north, the III. Panzerkorps offensive stalled pretty much immediately as expected.

Further south, initial progress has been decent.

I. Kavalleriekorps will try to nudge the Soviets away from Lake Balaton.

I. SS Panzerkorps will try to clear the primary road in the area with the fortified farm (the 100 point objective). The 3rd, 6th and 23rd Panzer Divisions will use that road to move south-west after they arrive/are released.

II. SS Panzerkorps was released at the end of March 6th and "Das Reich" and "Hohenstaufen" are redeploying to the 2. Panzerarmee area to support "Eisbrecher". "Hitlerjugend" will soon join them.

The 44. Reichsgrenadier Division "H.u.D." will move to the I. SS Panzerkorps sector to help "LSSAH" clear the road.



Fixed units highlighted.

"Eisbrecher" also had a solid start, as the initial Axis forces outnumber the initial Soviet forces. After second echelon Soviet forces were released, progress was limited. Attrition works in my favour in this sector, so I'm fine with slow but methodical progress here.



As both the Bulgarians and Yugoslavian forces are Fixed for most of the first day, "Waldteufel" made good progress on March 6th. At this point, I was still debating whether to withdraw the 11. LW Feld Division to move it to the other bridgehead. I ended up doing so during the day.

Note that for a day with limited action, losses are already stiff. Most Soviet gun losses consists of AT gun units at the initial frontline, which couldn't escape due to the weather conditions and stationary flamethrower units.